JASON J. CZARNEZKI

Three people in the last 24 hours have asked me the the following question:  Given the huge Republican wins on Tuesday, where would I need to live to have Democratic control of the governor’s office and both houses of the state legislature, as well as have two Democratic US Senators and a Democratic Representative in the US House?

Well, if you want all this, and you want your entire Congressional delegation to be Democratic, there are only two states for you, since they have only one member of the US House and two US Senators:

1. Delaware.
2. Vermont.  Though in Vermont this is only partly true since Sen. Bernie Sanders is a Socialist who caucuses with the Dems.

The other options, if you want Dem control of the Governor’s office, both houses of the state legislature, and both US Senators, but only care if your own House rep is a Dem, are:

1. Maryland (in the House districts surround D.C. and Baltimore)
2. West Virginia (in WV 3rd House district)
3. California (in the House districts on the coast, bordering Mexico, and in/near the cities of San Jose, San Francisco, LA, San Diego)
4. Hawaii (whole state)

And maybe 5. Oregon (in the western half of the state that includes Portland, Salem and Eugene), 6. Colorado (living in the House districts of Denver and Boulder), 7. Washington (in the northwest corner of the state, Seattle and Bellingham), and 8. parts of New York state.  There are Gov and/or state legislative races still too close  to call in those states.

(Readers, please let me know if I missed anything.  Thanks.)

11:15am: What’s next for Feingold?  Running against Obama in the 2012 Dem Presidential Primary?  Some think so.  More likely is that if Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) doesn’t run for re-election, then Feingold will run for the seat.  But it raises a broader question of whether Obama will have a primary fight.  I still view this as very unlikely.

10:56am: Denver Posts reports that Bennet (D) will win the CO Senate seat.

10:54am: via Green: “Proposition 23, the ballot initiative to freeze the California law setting a cap on greenhouse gas emissions, was defeated on Tuesday, with the “No” vote estimated at 59 percent.”

10:47am: Some thoughts.  Why do Dems turn their backs on Dem Presidents?  Gore turned his back on Clinton, and this year Obama helped cut margins (see IL, PA) where he campaigned for the Senate candidate.  What does this mean for Obama in 2012?  I don’t think it’s all bad.  I agree with First Read: “If you’re David Plouffe or David Axelrod, last night wasn’t a complete disaster regarding 2012. Joe Sestak’s and Ted Strickland’s narrow losses in Pennsylvania and Ohio, respectively, demonstrate that the path to victory in those states is still in reach for Obama (with a little help from the economy). The Senate races in Colorado and Nevada also suggest that Dems still have juice in the Mountain West.”  However, watching the House for the next two years is going to be wild.  With at least 239 seats, they’ll be able to pass any bill they want and then blame a Democratic Senate and President for not acting.

10:40am: Until 1am, I was live blogging election day.  It seems there’s always a Day 2 to elections now.  Here where we stand so far.  In an historic shift, the GOP has already picked up 60 seats (!) in the House with 12 races still undecided.  The Senate stands at 51 Dems, 46 GOP with 3 races still undecided in Alaska, Washington, and Colorado.  Shumlin (D) wins the VT Gov race as Dubie conceded this morning. I’ll post more updates throughout the day.

1:00am: Signing off.  Time to go to bed.

12:57am: Chafee (I) wins RI Gov race.  CA fails to legalize marijuana for recreational use.

12:54am: I don’t think I’m going to get any more VT Gov results until morning.  With 90.9% votes in, here is the unofficial tally.

Peter Shumlin (D) 50% 108,974

Brian Dubie (R) 48% 104,707

12:50am:  CNN reports that Republicans are likely to gain at least 60 seats (!!!) in the House.

12:46am: A.P. Also Projects Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Will Defeat Sharron Angle in Nevada

12:42am: So now its looks like we’re awaiting the CO senate race, as well as Washington and Alaska.  Shumlin (D) looks in good shape in the VT Gov race, leading by over 4,000 votes with 91% of the vote in.

12:40am: Big news.  CNN Projects Harry Reid (D) will win in Nevada.

12:33pm: Next project: What states actually were swept by Dems where there we multiple statewide races? (1) maybe VT? (Shumlin, Leahy, Welch); (2) CA (Brown, Boxer); (3) NY (Schumer, Gillenbrand, Cuomo); (4) maybe CO? (if Bennet wins); (5) Delaware (Carney, Coons); (6) Maryland (Milkulski, O’Malley); (7) Hawaii? (TBD).

12:30am: Unconfirmed reports in VT Gov race: Shumlin will win by under 2000 votes; Shumlin has good chance to meet 50% threshold; no concessions tonight.

12:25am:  VT Gov Race: Shumlin 108,974 to Dubie 104,707. 50 percent to 48 percent (91.9% reporting)

12:21am:  A.P. Projects Republican Mark Steven Kirk Will Win Obama’s Former Illinois Senate Seat.  That’s just embarrassing for the Democrats.  CNN Projects Toomey (R) wins PA Senate seat, and Kasich (R) wins Ohio Gov.

12:14am: UPDATE via the NY Times.  Too close to call in CO, PA, and IL.  Reid takes early lead in NV.

12:08am: CNN projects Jerry Brown (D) to be California Gov defeating Meg Whitman.

12:07am: Portland, Me., rejects noncitizen voting

MIDNIGHT: It’s midnight!!! Still so much to learn:  Will Reid survive in NV?  What’s happens to the Murkowski write-in effort in Alaska?  Awaiting winners in PA, IL, and CO Senate races.

11:59: CNN also projects Boxer (D) Senate win in CA.

11:58pm: CNN Projects Democrats will retain Control of the Senate.

11:57pm: Nevada Senate Results:

11:56pm:  Amazing redux.  With 88.9% of the vote in Shumlin (D) leading by 3 (!!!) votes in VT Gov race.

11:46pm: Boxer (D) declared winner in CA Senate Race.

11:43pm: Both WCAX and the NY Times show small Shumlin (D) leads in the VT Gov race.  I have no idea whether Dubie (R) or Shumlin will win at the end of this thing, but it make we wonder: Do more states have a single party controlling all of state government than ever before?

11:40: The power of Palin.  See here.

11:36pm: PA Senate race still too close to call, as is IL.  Too close to call in FL Gov race.  House seats: 244 Rep., 191 Dem.  +39 seats so far.   Senate seats now: 46 Dem, 44 Rep, 2 I (that caucus with Dems) +4 Rep so far.  Lots of experienced Dems lost in the House.

11:34pm:  Amazing.  With 84.3% of the vote in Dubie leading by 7 (!!!) votes in VT Gov race.

11:23pm: What should we take from elections like this?  Certainly the continued polarization of American politics since September 11.  Many are frustrated.  Here’s my partner’s take; she’s certainly frustrated.  Friends on Facebook have stopped watching results.  But the reality is that this country got harder to govern.  Blue dogs and maverick Democrats have been defeated, moderate and establishment Republicans lost primaries to Tea Party candidates, the conservatives in Congress will be more conservative, and liberals more liberal.  There are at least two very divergent views for the future of America.  That said, it’s hard to believe that just two years ago we saw Jesse Jackson crying in Grant Park as an African-American with a name of Barack Hussien Obam was elected president.  While liberals may be frustrated tonight, two years is quite soon and it’s very possible for a president to win re-election after a mid-term hammering (see Bill Clinton in 1996).  In addition, compared to other Western democracies, the U.S. is a very conservative country with a conservative structure of government (e.g., checks and balances; Senate rules), which should make this evenings results and the difficultly in passing progressive legislation less surprising.

11:21: VT Gov: Dubie and Shumlin separated by 106 votes.

11:17pm: In Illinois, they are voting at the same time for the 6 year Senate term AND a special election for remainder of unexpired term for Barack Obama’s vacated Senate seat.  Thus, Kirk and Giannoulias could split these…very odd.  See the Chicago Tribune results here.

11:14pm: Republicans make gains in key Senate races of PA and IL.

11:04pm: VT Politics Update: Race for Gov too close to call, and we will either learn of winner very late tonight or have to wait until Sec of State certified results.

11:03pm: Nikki Haley (R) projected to win SC Gov race by CNN; big win for Palin and tea party movement.

11:01pm: Wyden (D) wins and holds seat in Oregon Senate Race.  Raw exit poll data shows Jerry Brown up in race for CA Gov, Boxer (D) up on Fiorina in CA Senate race, and closer but Murray (D) up in Wash Senate Race.

11:00pm: CNN reports that Republicans will likely break the 54 House seat gain that they had in 1994.

(more…)

I’ll be live blogging the Election on Tuesday.  There will be a number of races to watch.

Republican chances to take the U.S. House are very high.  538 has a great resource: The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide.  Republicans need to pickup 39 seats to control the House.

Democrats have a much better chance to retain control of the U.S. Senate.  But historically, when the House switched so does the Senate.  Here are some very exciting races and questions:

• Wisconsin: Will Feingold (D), despite his maverick/independent rep, lose to Rob Johnson (R)?
• Nevada: Will Tea Party favorite Sharon Angle (R) defeat Majority Leader Harry Reid (D)?
• Conn.:  Will the World Wide Wrestling Federation executive Linda McMahon (R) defeat popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal?
• Alaska: This one is wild.  A democrat, a tea party candidate endorsed by Palin who is losing ground, and the incumbent Lisa Murkowski running as a write-in candidate.  And now this.
• Penn.: Will the very conservative Toomey beat Sestak is a state that often proves to be fool’s gold for Republicans?
• Illinois: Can the Dems keep Obama’s old seat in this nasty race?
• California: Boxer v. Fiorina.
• Florida: Can Crist (now an Independent) defeat Rubio?  Should Meeks have withdrawn?

Other states in play: WV, WA, and CO.  Other interesting races: AR (the end of Blanche Lincoln?); Deleware (the O’Donnell factor); KY (Rand & the Tea Party).

For governor’s races, I’ll focus most of  my writing on the races in Wisconsin (Barrett v. Walker), Vermont (Shumlin v. Dubie) and CA (Whitman v. Brown).

Growing up in Wisconsin and now living in Vermont, I’m comfortable saying this: If Dubie wins in Vermont, and Feingold and Barrett lose big in Wisconsin, it’s going to be a very long night for Democrats.