I’ll be live blogging the Election on Tuesday.  There will be a number of races to watch.

Republican chances to take the U.S. House are very high.  538 has a great resource: The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide.  Republicans need to pickup 39 seats to control the House.

Democrats have a much better chance to retain control of the U.S. Senate.  But historically, when the House switched so does the Senate.  Here are some very exciting races and questions:

  • Wisconsin: Will Feingold (D), despite his maverick/independent rep, lose to Rob Johnson (R)?
  • Nevada: Will Tea Party favorite Sharon Angle (R) defeat Majority Leader Harry Reid (D)?
  • Conn.:  Will the World Wide Wrestling Federation executive Linda McMahon (R) defeat popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal?
  • Alaska: This one is wild.  A democrat, a tea party candidate endorsed by Palin who is losing ground, and the incumbent Lisa Murkowski running as a write-in candidate.  And now this.
  • Penn.: Will the very conservative Toomey beat Sestak is a state that often proves to be fool’s gold for Republicans?
  • Illinois: Can the Dems keep Obama’s old seat in this nasty race?
  • California: Boxer v. Fiorina.
  • Florida: Can Crist (now an Independent) defeat Rubio?  Should Meeks have withdrawn?

Other states in play: WV, WA, and CO.  Other interesting races: AR (the end of Blanche Lincoln?); Deleware (the O’Donnell factor); KY (Rand & the Tea Party).

For governor’s races, I’ll focus most of  my writing on the races in Wisconsin (Barrett v. Walker), Vermont (Shumlin v. Dubie) and CA (Whitman v. Brown).

Growing up in Wisconsin and now living in Vermont, I’m comfortable saying this: If Dubie wins in Vermont, and Feingold and Barrett lose big in Wisconsin, it’s going to be a very long night for Democrats.

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