JASON J. CZARNEZKI

Nate Silver says 18% chance.  Being from Wisconsin and considering Feingold’s unique voting record, it’s hard for me to take seriously polls that show him 11 points down; more likely just a close race due to a open governor’s seat and an enthusiasm gap with Dems.

Now that Peter Shumlin has been declared the Democratic nominee in the Vermont Governor’s Race, there has been a dramatic shift in the polling and statistical predictions of who will win the race.  Interpret with caution.

Writes Nate Silver:

Another state with sparse polling is Vermont; Rasmussen Reports is the only firm to have surveyed the state, and only on a couple of occasions. But a new poll from Rasmussen shows the Democrat, Peter Shumlin, with a narrow lead, after previously having trailed the Republican Brian Dubie by a substantial margin. Mr. Shumlin was declared the winner of a recount in the Democratic primary last week, in which four Democrats each finished with 21 to 25 percent of the vote. Polling results can sometimes be erratic immediately before or immediately after primaries, and so the poll should probably be interpreted cautiously — although it is also not uncommon for a fundamentally new dynamic to emerge in a race after a primary. In any event, the model now regards Mr. Shumlin as a 3-to-1 favorite, in spite of having been the underdog before.

My friends and colleagues know I like to make political predictions.  (Yes, I did, in public, predict that George W. Bush would nominate Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court.  Recall that Dick Cheney, in charge of the VP committee, selected himself so there was precedent that I relied on).  So I want to clearly state via the blog that, yes, I believe that Sarah Palin will run for President in 2012.  I really want to predict that Palin will win the GOP nomination (and that would be my prediction if I had to make one today), but I don’t feel comfortable making this bold assertion until after the mid-term elections.

For support for my ‘she will run’ prediction see here.  When you think there’s a change that you could be elected president and a buzz surrounds you, you usually go for it (see, e.g, Barack Obama).

UPDATE: It seems that I was on something.  See here.

To go along with Paul in Kentucky, Reid’s opponent in Nevada, and the Murkowski loss in Alaska, the Tea Party just scored another victory in the GOP U.S. Senate Primary in Delaware.   What does it mean?  Moderates in the GOP are becoming endangered, establishment Republicans are very uncomfortable, Palin feels powerful, Democrats feel more hopeful about their chances, moderate Republicans voters won’t know what to do in the general, and everyone should be curious what so many Tea Party candidates in the Senate could do to coalition building and governance.

Here.

Hat tip: Clancy DeSmet

UPDATE: Shumlin wins recount.

But there is a shortage of volunteers.  538 (now owned by the NY Times) has finally posted forecasts for the VT Governors race, and currently forecasts a close win by GOP Candidate Dubie over likely Democratic nominee Shumlin.  See here.

The Wisconsin Governor’s Race will start a free-for-all in local Milwaukee politics.  See here.