Now that Peter Shumlin has been declared the Democratic nominee in the Vermont Governor’s Race, there has been a dramatic shift in the polling and statistical predictions of who will win the race.  Interpret with caution.

Writes Nate Silver:

Another state with sparse polling is Vermont; Rasmussen Reports is the only firm to have surveyed the state, and only on a couple of occasions. But a new poll from Rasmussen shows the Democrat, Peter Shumlin, with a narrow lead, after previously having trailed the Republican Brian Dubie by a substantial margin. Mr. Shumlin was declared the winner of a recount in the Democratic primary last week, in which four Democrats each finished with 21 to 25 percent of the vote. Polling results can sometimes be erratic immediately before or immediately after primaries, and so the poll should probably be interpreted cautiously — although it is also not uncommon for a fundamentally new dynamic to emerge in a race after a primary. In any event, the model now regards Mr. Shumlin as a 3-to-1 favorite, in spite of having been the underdog before.

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