Vermont: We finally have a new poll here. Mason-Dixon surveyed the race and found the Republican, Brian Dubie, running 1 point ahead of the Democrat, Peter Shumlin. The only previous polls of the state had been from Rasmussen Reports; the most recent showed Mr. Shumlin with a small lead. The race is a tossup.
Politics
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October 20, 2010
October 18, 2010
I hope to live blog election day on Nov. 2, but according to this report, I may be in for a long night if the Alaska U.S. Senate race is meaningful in determining control of the Senate.
October 15, 2010
Reports PoliticalWire: A new Vermont Public Radio poll shows Brian Dubie (R) and Peter Shumlin (D) are locked in a tight battle for Vermont governor, with the Republican leading by just one point, 44% to 43%.
October 8, 2010
Nobel Peace Prize Given to Jailed Chinese Dissident
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under China, Law, PoliticsLeave a Comment
Reports the Times. The activities of Liu Xiaobo, and the government response, were a common topic of conversation in closed settings while we were in China. This news will make the Chinese government very unhappy.
October 5, 2010
Just over four months ago I had an extended conversation with a well-connected person about what the future would bring for Hillary Clinton. By most accounts and polls, her popularity is relatively high and she’s thought very highly of within the State Department, but it would be unexpected if she were to stay on as Secretary of State another term, if Obama is re-elected. During the conversation we pondered whether Hillary Clinton could be the next Vice-Presidential candidate, replacing Joe Biden on the ticket. Now, Bob Woodward has indicated that this might be a real possibility (at least from the Clinton camp point of view). See here and here. I can guarantee that this story, Obama-Clinton 2012, will have legs. Why?
- Current VP Joe Biden is the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and I suspect would like to be Sec. of State.
- It’s very unlikely Joe Biden would run for president in 2016 at age 74.
- While Clinton as VP in 2008 would have had scars from the heated primary and caused vetting difficulties, the wounds have healed, Obama and Clinton seem to work well together, and she (and Bill) were already vetted for the State post.
- There is no heir apparent to Obama with Biden as VP. For this reason, there should be speculation that Biden will be replaced in 2012 with someone younger, regardless of whether or not it is Clinton. Will Obama want to pick a future leader of the Democratic party? Will Obama want that person to be Clinton?
- It’s possible that the Clinton camp views this as the best path to the Presidency. She’ll be 69 years old in 2016, and may have a much easier path to the nomination as Obama’s VP.
- Many pundits would see this as shrewd political move in gaining votes among certain demographics.
If its Obama/Clinton v. Palin/Anybody in 2012, the entertainment value of American politics just went through the roof.
October 2, 2010
For Political Junkies: Review of David Plouffe’s “Audacity to Win” – Part II
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under China, Life, Natural Resources, Politics1 Comment
I earlier reviewed the first half of David Plouffe’s retelling of his experience as campaign manager in Obama’s 2008 Presidential Campaign. I enjoyed the first half immensely, but I can’t say the same for the second. I think there are two basic reasons for this. First, the campaign strategy in the general election necessitated by the Electoral College (targeting key states) wasn’t as exciting as the delegate fight of the primary. It’s true Obama expanded the map in states like North Carolina and Virginia, among others, but that’s really a story of the proper political climate and the money raised by Obama. Second, again due to the political climate and, at the time, Obama’s unlikely candidacy, Hillary Clinton was a far more formidable opponent than John McCain. I will say that I expect the 2012 Republican Primary to be almost as exciting as the 2008 Democratic fight, and the 2012 general election could be so entertaining that I could sell tickets to my neighbors without TVs (yes, very common in VT) if they want to watch the debates and election results.
Next on my reading list are Oracle Bones and River Town by Peter Hessler, both books about China, and I’m looking for a good book about the political/presidential history of federal natural resources. Any sugggestions?
September 27, 2010
Census Data Bad News for Dems in Electoral College
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under PoliticsLeave a Comment
Politico reports:
Election Data Services, which reviewed new Census data from a private-sector demographic firm, estimates Florida will gain two House seats and New York will lose two seats in December’s reapportionment. Texas is expected to gain four House seats and Ohio likely will lose two seats. Six states each would gain one seat: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Eight states would lose one seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. … Missouri will lose a House seat instead of Minnesota.
This is bad news for Obama and the Dems, and good news for the 2012 Republican nominee, as most of the gains go to states won by McCain in 2008: AZ, GA, SC, UT, TX. And the Florida battle increases in importance.
September 27, 2010
For Political Junkies: Review of David Plouffe’s “Audacity to Win” – Part I
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under Politics, UncategorizedLeave a Comment
I’m kind of a political junkie so I’ve added “Politics” to by blog’s subtitle. And when I’m completely swamped with work, I often pickup a political book to read. This past weekend I bought “The Audacity to Win” by David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager. The book so far (I’m half done) is a great read for political gurus and those who like inside baseball. Some initial thoughts:
- While Obama’s strategy in Iowa was phenomenal, I’m still not sure what happened in New Hamsphire. Plouffe suggests some ideas (Republicans/Independents who thought Obama had it in the bag and voted for McCain in the GOP Primary instead; Hillary Clinton’s emotional moment), but I would have liked to know a bit more about the numbers. Also, it was clear early on that Obama had an Iowa strategy (win or go home), but I’m not convinced their NH strategy at the early stages was anything more than ride the wave of the Iowa victory.
- Plouffe is hard on the campaign about how they handled Texas. He argues they messed up, and rather than going for delegate counts in Ohio and Texas, they should have made a political decision to go all-in and win Texas, even if it meant giving up delegates in Ohio. I just think this is wrong, and Plouffe is too hard on himself. They had fixed on a two possible strategies after winning Iowa, (1) win NH and its over, and (2) a delegate fight. Making the decision they did make in Texas and Ohio showed the campaign’s discipline. I will say that they did the political thing and went all-in in the Indiana primary much later, and that this worked to their benefit.
- There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton was a very formidable candidate, would have won the nomination in any other year, and that Obama was benefited in the general from the drawn out primary season. Clinton’s strength was evinced in her ability to stay in the race after 11 defeats in a row by huge margins leading up to the PA primary.
- I wonder whether the 2008 Democratic nomination will change perceptions in the media and public about how to win the nomination. While momentum and big states will always matter, will delegate acquisition be the public strategy/story causing candidates to stay in the race longer that they might have in previous years? Maybe, but still difficult given the realities of funding a campaign.
- Money matters… a lot. And I found the Plouffe argument in the book for why Obama opted out of public financing for the general election to be quite compelling. The summary: staying in the system arguably cost Kerry the election in 2004.
- On the VP front, the book explains that Clinton was given serious consideration, but that the finalists were Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, and Tim Kaine. I would have liked to know more about how these three became the finalists and who was on the longer list.
I’m now at the point in the book where the Obama Campaign is going to announce its VP choice.
September 23, 2010
Obama Delivers Harsh Warning to Chinese on Currency
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under China, PoliticsLeave a Comment
According to this NY Times article, Obama insisted to Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao that China must immediately revalue its currency and if “the Chinese don’t take actions, we have other means of protecting U.S. interests.”
This kind of tone with the Chinese plays great with Americans and domestic politics, and may be effective with China in the long-term. But in the short-term, it makes the Chinese lose face and the Chinese government may do nothing for fear that they will be perceived as weak in the international community and among their own citizenry.
My view is that this statement by the American President in intended to show Americans that he’s serious about improving the economy, and that it serves as a real warning to the Chinese that Congress might put tariffs on Chinese goods if necessary.
September 23, 2010
Should 17-year-olds be allowed to vote? In Vermont?
Posted by Jason J. Czarnezki under Law, Politics[3] Comments
I’ve always thought that the answer to this should be yes, in primary elections, if they will turn 18 by the date of the general election. This is the law in some states, and now Vermonters will get to decide this issue on their November election ballot.
Section 72 of the Vermont Constitution reads:
At the biennial session of the General Assembly of this State which convenes in A.D. 1975, and at the biennial session convening every fourth year thereafter, the Senate by a vote of two-thirds of its members, may propose amendments to this Constitution, with the concurrence of a majority of the members of the House of Representatives with the amendment as proposed by the Senate. A proposed amendment so adopted by the Senate and concurred in by the House of Representatives shall be referred to the next biennial session of the General Assembly; and if at that last session a majority of the members of the Senate and a majority of the House of Representatives concur in the proposed amendment, it shall be the duty of the General Assembly to submit the proposal directly to the voters of the state. Any proposed amendment submitted to the voters of the state in accordance with this section which is approved by a majority of the voters voting thereon shall become part of the Constitution of this State.
Prior to the submission of a proposed amendment to a vote in accordance with this section, public notice of the proposed amendment shall be given by proclamation of the Governor.
The General Assembly shall provide for the manner of voting on amendments proposed under this section, and shall enact legislation to carry the provisions of this section into effect.
Apparently the state legislature very quietly adopted this constitutional amendment, and now it’s up to the voters. Then the legislature will have to craft implementing regulation if the amendment passes.
JASON J. CZARNEZKI 