Just over four months ago I had an extended conversation with a well-connected person about what the future would bring for Hillary Clinton.  By most accounts and polls, her popularity is relatively high and she’s thought very highly of within the State Department, but it would be unexpected if she were to stay on as Secretary of State another term, if Obama is re-elected.  During the conversation we pondered whether Hillary Clinton could be the next Vice-Presidential candidate, replacing Joe Biden on the ticket.  Now, Bob Woodward has indicated that this might be a real possibility (at least from the Clinton camp point of view).  See here and here.  I can guarantee that this story, Obama-Clinton 2012, will have legs.  Why?

  1. Current VP Joe Biden is the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and I suspect would like to be Sec. of State.
  2. It’s very unlikely Joe Biden would run for president in 2016 at age 74.
  3. While Clinton as VP in 2008 would have had scars from the heated primary and caused vetting difficulties, the wounds have healed, Obama and Clinton seem to work well together, and she (and Bill) were already vetted for the State post.
  4. There is no heir apparent to Obama with Biden as VP.  For this reason, there should be speculation that Biden will be replaced in 2012 with someone younger, regardless of whether or not it is Clinton.  Will Obama want to pick a future leader of the Democratic party?  Will Obama want that person to be Clinton?
  5. It’s possible that the Clinton camp views this as the best path to the Presidency.  She’ll be 69 years old in 2016, and may have a much easier path to the nomination as Obama’s VP.
  6. Many pundits would see this as shrewd political move in gaining votes among certain demographics.

If its Obama/Clinton v. Palin/Anybody in 2012, the entertainment value of American politics just went through the roof.